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Mining geriatric assessment data for in-patient fall prediction models and high-risk subgroups
(2012)
Background: Hospital in-patient falls constitute a prominent problem in terms of costs and consequences. Geriatric institutions are most often affected, and common screening tools cannot predict in-patient falls consistently. Our objectives are to derive comprehensible fall risk classification models from a large data set of geriatric in-patients’ assessment data and to evaluate their predictive performance (aim#1), and to identify high-risk subgroups from the data (aim#2).
Methods: A data set of n = 5,176 single in-patient episodes covering 1.5 years of admissions to a geriatric hospital were extracted from the hospital’s data base and matched with fall incident reports (n = 493). A classification tree model was induced using the C4.5 algorithm as well as a logistic regression model, and their predictive performance was evaluated. Furthermore, high-risk subgroups were identified from extracted classification rules with a support of more than 100 instances.
Results: The classification tree model showed an overall classification accuracy of 66%, with a sensitivity of 55.4%, a specificity of 67.1%, positive and negative predictive values of 15% resp. 93.5%. Five high-risk groups were identified, defined by high age, low Barthel index, cognitive impairment, multi-medication and co-morbidity.
Conclusions: Our results show that a little more than half of the fallers may be identified correctly by our model, but the positive predictive value is too low to be applicable. Non-fallers, on the other hand, may be sorted out with the model quite well. The high-risk subgroups and the risk factors identified (age, low ADL score, cognitive impairment, institutionalization, polypharmacy and co-morbidity) reflect domain knowledge and may be used to screen certain subgroups of patients with a high risk of falling. Classification models derived from a large data set using data mining methods can compete with current dedicated fall risk screening tools, yet lack diagnostic precision. High-risk subgroups may be identified automatically from existing geriatric assessment data, especially when combined with domain knowledge in a hybrid classification model. Further work is necessary to validate our approach in a controlled prospective setting.
Wearable sensors in healthcare and sensor-enhanced health information systems: all our tomorrows?
(2012)
Wearable sensor systems which allow for remote or self-monitoring of health-related parameters are regarded as one means to alleviate the consequences of demographic change. This paper aims to summarize current research in wearable sensors as well as in sensor-enhanced health information systems. Wearable sensor technologies are already advanced in terms of their technical capabilities and are frequently used for cardio-vascular monitoring. Epidemiologic predictions suggest that neuro-psychiatric diseases will have a growing impact on our health systems and thus should be addressed more intensively. Two current project examples demonstrate the benefit of wearable sensor technologies: long-term, objective measurement under daily-life, unsupervised conditions. Finally, up-to-date approaches for the implementation of sensor-enhanced health information systems are outlined. Wearable sensors are an integral part of future pervasive, ubiquitous and person-centered health
care delivery. Future challenges include their integration into sensor-enhanced health information systems and sound evaluation studies involving measures of workload reduction and costs.