Fakultät IV - Wirtschaft und Informatik
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We present a novel approach for simulating eclipses, incorporating effects of light scattering and refraction in the occluder's atmosphere. Our approach not only simulates the eclipse shadow, but also allows for watching the Sun being eclipsed by the occluder. The latter is a spectacular sight which has never been seen by human eyes: For an observer on the lunar surface, the atmosphere around Earth turns into a glowing red ring as sunlight is refracted around the planet. To simulate this, we add three key contributions: First, we extend the Bruneton atmosphere model to simulate refraction. This allows light rays to be bent into the shadow cone. Refraction also adds realism to the atmosphere as it deforms and displaces the Sun during sunrise and sunset. Second, we show how to precompute the eclipse shadow using this extended atmosphere model. Third, we show how to efficiently visualize the glowing atmosphere ring around the occluder. Our approach produces visually accurate results suited for scientific visualizations, science communication, and video games. It is not limited to the Earth‐Moon system, but can also be used to simulate the shadow of Mars and potentially other bodies. We demonstrate the physical soundness of our approach by comparing the results to reference data. Because no data is available for eclipses beyond the Earth‐Moon system, we predict how an eclipse on a Martian moon will look like. Our implementation is available under the terms of the MIT license.
This study analyzes the determinants of both total migration and asylum migration to Germany. For the analysis, a comprehensive empirical model is set up that includes climate change, economic opportunities, such as per capita income differentials, links to Germany, home country characteristics (population growth, poverty, consumer confidence, unemployment), the political and institutional situation in the sending countries (measured by internal and external conflict, ethnic and religious tensions, government stability, law and order, military in politics), and a control for migration opportunities to alternative destinations. Panel data techniques (Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood) for the estimation of the parameters of interest are employed using a panel of 115 (134) origin countries for asylum migration (total migration) over the period of 1996–2017 or 2001–2017, depending on data availability. The analysis reveals that political, socioeconomic, and economic factors determine both total migration and asylum migration. Economic factors are also determinants of asylum applications, as asylum seekers most often come for several reasons. Poverty plays a distinct role in total migration and asylum migration. An alleviation of poverty in origin countries is associated with less overall migration to Germany but with more asylum migration. Increases in average temperature also impact asylum migration in the expected direction, thus, increasing forced migration. The most interesting findings are revealed when considering country groupings (main migration countries, major asylum countries, countries whose asylum applicants enjoy high, intermediate, or low recognition rates).
Workers' remittances declined sharply as the COVID‐19 pandemic spread in the first half of 2020, rebounding in the second half. This paper analyses the impact of containment and economic support measures on remittances sent to Latin America during 2019–2020 using a gravity model estimated with the Poisson pseudo‐maximum likelihood estimator (PPML). Results show that containment measures in receiving countries mainly explain the fall in remittance flows, whereas the effect of economic support measures is not robust. Among the traditional explanatory factors, the business cycle and the real exchange rate in receiving countries explain the subsequent recovery of remittances.
This paper is the first to analyse the impact of free trade agreements (FTAs) and the harmonisation of rules of origin (RoO) on Middle East and North African (MENA) countries’ exports differentiating between final and intermediate goods for a global sample of trade partners. Data on exports from four MENA countries (Egypt, Jordan, Morocco and Tunisia) to 61 destinations over the period 1995–2016 are used to estimate a structural gravity model applying a Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimator. Moreover, the paper estimates the effect of the progressive adoption of the Pan‐European‐Mediterranean RoO. Results show that FTAs have been overall successful in increasing MENA exports. This is particularly true for FTAs that eliminate protection on agricultural products. In contrast to the existing literature, we find that the agreements concluded with European countries raise MENA exports, whereas no significant impact is found for the application of the Pan‐European RoO.
The Institute for Employment Research (IAB), the Federal Institute for Population Research (BiB), the Research Centre of the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees, and the Socio-Economic Panel at DIW Berlin have surveyed 11,225 Ukrainian refugees in Germany from August to October 2022. The survey can be extrapolated to the refuge population who has arrived since the beginning of the war at February 24, 2022, to June 8, 2022, in Germany. The results show that the majority of refugees from Ukraine report war as the main flight motive, while personal contacts and respect of human rights were the main reasons to choose Germany as a destination. Roughly 80 percent of adult refugees are women. About the half lives together with minor-aged children, about 80 percent without a partner. Some 70 percent have tertiary education degrees. Yet, only 4 percent report good or very good, another 14 percent fair German language proficiency. About 50 percent visits or has already completed a German language class. 17 percent are employed, with some 70 percent of those performing qualified jobs. The health status of the refugee population is good, but life satisfaction well below the German population average. Above one-third of the refugees plans to stay in Germany forever or for several years, about one-third aim to leave Germany by the end of war, while 27 percent are not yet certain about their staying perspectives.
Der russische Angriffskrieg auf die Ukraine hat die größte Fluchtbewegung in Europa seit Ende des Zweiten Weltkriegs ausgelöst. Seit Kriegsbeginn sind mehr als eine Million Menschen aus der Ukraine nach Deutschland geflohen. Erste repräsentative Erkenntnisse über deren Lebenssituation und Zukunftspläne ermöglicht die Studie „Geflüchtete aus der Ukraine in Deutschland (IAB-BiB/FReDA-BAMF-SOEP Befragung)“, eine gemeinsame Studie des Instituts für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), des Bundesinstituts für Bevölkerungsforschung (BiB), des Forschungszentrums des Bundesamts für Migration und Flüchtlinge (BAMF-FZ) und des Sozio-oekonomischen Panels (SOEP) am DIW Berlin. Für diese Studie wurden 11.763 Geflüchtete aus der Ukraine in der Zeit zwischen August und Oktober 2022 befragt.
This study describes the first wave of the IAB-BiB/FReDA-BAMF-SOEP Survey on Ukrainian Refugees in Germany, a unique panel dataset based on over 11,000 interviews conducted between August and October 2022. The aim of the IAB-BiB/FReDA-BAMF-SOEP Survey is to provide a data-infrastructure for theory-driven and evidence-based research on various aspects of integration among Ukrainian refugees in Germany, the second most important destination country in the EU after Poland, hosting over a million people who arrived in Germany shortly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Based on the survey, this study also provides first insights into demographic, educational, linguistic, occupational, and social characteristics of this population. The analyses revealed that the refugee population comprised mostly young and educated individuals, with a significant proportion of females without partners and female-headed separated families. While German language skills were limited, about half of Ukrainian refugees had attended or were attending language courses. However, the integration process faced significant challenges, as the participation of children in day-care was relatively low, and the self-reported life satisfaction was markedly below the average of the German population. The study highlights the need for targeted policy measures to address such issues. Additionally, policies may aim at harnessing the high potential of the Ukrainian refugees for the German labor market. Given that a substantial proportion would like to stay in Germany permanently, policymakers should take note of these findings and aim to facilitate their long-term integration process to ensure that these refugees may thrive in Germany.
With this systematic literature review we investigate the use of graphical tools and standard notations, such as the Business Process Modelling Notation (BPMN) and the Unified Modelling Language (UML), in the development of simulations. In our review, we focus on different simulation methods, such as agentbased simulation, discrete event simulation, system dynamic simulation and hybrid simulation approaches. We examine more than 1.000 scientific articles, which cover simulation approaches in the area of operations management and business. Our results provide insights into the frequency of the use of notations in simulation development, the relationship between notations and simulation methods and secondarily the frequency of used simulation methods in the business environment.
This paper presents an approach to develop region-specific simulation models for quantifying and evaluating the traffic-related, environmental, and economic implications of combined passenger and freight transportation via shared autonomous vehicles (SAV). Based on a broad literature review, conceptual peculiarities, interdependencies and characteristics were derived and transferred into a conferrable, agent-based object library. Finally, to ensure its usefulness and credibility, an initial evaluation of the object library was carried out by developing and visually validating a simulation-prototype for a rural area in Hanover, Germany.
